As it’s January, we tend to be flooded with predictions for the year ahead. In keeping with our tradition, we wanted to take a look back at our own set of predictions that we made in January 2023.

It’s hard to imagine that 12 months have elapsed since we penned our top predictions for 2023. To remind ourselves, in our January ’23 Newsletter we outlined the following Business & Sporting ‘predictions’ for the year ahead. So how did we do?

  1. Global Equity Markets to post a strong recovery in 2023. The first few months to reflect economic uncertainty with volatile returns. The MSCI World Index (a widely followed global stock market index that tracks the performance of large and mid-cap companies across 23 developed countries) returned 20.20% on the Calendar year. – Correct. It should be noted the Index returned 11.47% from the 27th October alone.
  2. Ireland beat the All Blacks in the Rugby World Cup Quarter Final. Wrong. But sooo close.
  3. China reopening drives a bullish cycle in commodities, particularly energy. Wrong, but coming.
  4. Arsenal will not win the English Premiership Title in 2023 (Sadly, I don’t see Utd winning it either). Correct. Looking better this year, but still out of reach?
  5. Fixed Interest benefits from the disinflationary trend and an end to Central Bank monetary tightening. Correct, but a lot more to come.
  6. Gold to exceed $2,000 per ounce in 2023. Correct – Ended the year at $2,071.98.
  7. Rory McIlroy to win at least 1 Golf Major in 2023. Wrong. Will he ever get the Grand Slam of Golf?
  8. For those Techies amongst us, they will wonder how they existed without Chat GPT. Correct. Has become a main staple of many within the industry.

The above reflects a 5 out of 8 accuracy rate. Not bad. So let’s see how we do in 2024 with our top 8 predictions for the next 12 months.

It’s going to be an interesting year, in many respects. More than half the people on the planet live in countries that will hold nationwide elections in 2024, the first time this milestone has been reached. Based on recent patterns of voter turnout, close to 2 billion people in more than 70 countries will head to the polls. Ballots will be cast from Britain to Bangladesh, from India to Indonesia.

As a Manchester United Fan, I am tempted to say United will win the league too but that would test the most optimistic forecast for 2024. So, for better or worse, our top predictions are:

  1. Donald Trump does not become the next President of the United States.
  2. Viktor Hovland goes off as the favourite at the Masters.
  3. Thanks to fracking technology, the US oil output overtakes OPEC in 2024.
  4. Cillian Murphy wins the Best Actor Oscar in 2024.
  5. Netanyahu will be unseated as Israeli prime minister.
  6. Russia-Ukraine conflict is not resolved in 2024.
  7. England win Euro 2024.
  8. Ursula von der Leyen secures a second term as European Commission president.